Why tougher times lie ahead

Discussion in 'Money, Investing & Precious Metals' started by readytogo, Mar 3, 2017.

  1. readytogo

    readytogo ExCommunicated

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    The US economy advanced an annualized 1.9 percent on quarter in the last three months of 2016, slowing from a 3.5 percent growth in the previous period and matching earlier estimates. Consumer spending rose faster than anticipated while business investment was revised lower. In 2016, the GDP expanded 1.6%, the lowest since 2011.Gap once ruled the retail world. But today America's largest apparel retailer is closing a quarter of its stores and laying off hundreds of workers after disappointing sales. As Americans shell out for items like iPhones Netflix, Autos and tickers to the games they are increasingly unwilling to pay full price for sweaters and jeans. Wet Seal, a shopping mall staple, abruptly shut down nearly all of its stores. Sears, Macy's, and JCPenney have also shuttered hundreds of store locations in recent years. More than two dozen malls have shut down in the last four years and another 60 malls are on the brink of death. Why consumers spending? Well we keep buying junk and on credit, the national car loans probably broke the trillion mark by now, according to Experian it was $886 billion in outstanding auto loans in the fourth quarter of 2014. That’s up nearly 23 percent from the same period two years ago, corporate America is not stupid, low interest rates and many years to pay for that fancy truck or BMW, that is why many young professionals can`t afford the rent and also many old retirees’ can`t afford food or drugs .Many jobs will be lost do to technology improvements while the medical field is expected to increase due to the older populace but the bottom line is that we better tighten our belts because many changes are on the way and that`s not a prediction ,is on the numbers. Before the Great Depression the stock market was up and running, the Roaring Twenties, the U.S. economy had an unprecedented economic boom. New technologies, there was mass production in the manufacturing, telecommunications, movie and chemical sectors. Infrastructure was being built to support all of these new technologies. Much of the population moved into the cities to acquire jobs in these industries. Americans found themselves with ever increasing amounts of dollars to spend which was then invested in the stock market and deposited in to banks. Just like today. My neighbor just lost her house,5 mortgages, new swimming pool and many vacation trips but not one penny saved.:scratch
     
  2. AmishHeart

    AmishHeart Well-Known Member

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    Not to mention the 20 trillion dollar debt. Our government has not been responsible at all.
    Many people in my state could be working, but chose not to, and take government handouts. Then they use charge cards. This month with lots of single moms in our state receiving their tax refund for "earned income tax credit", and $$ for each child they have...lots choose to spend it on video games for the kids, fun stuff. If I were that broke, I would pay my rent ahead, and make sure I had no debt.
    People have changed since the great depression, and many back then were go getters. It'll be awful hard if the economy collapses now, because of the attitude of those they have never worked a day in their life.
     

  3. Tweto

    Tweto I love the smell of Argon in the morning

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    The OP is all true except this is only part of the story. The GDP has been very bad for the last 2 years at completely impotent returns. Retailers have been going out of business since the recession of 2008. The only reason that the rest have stayed in business is because personal credit has been too easy to get and people just keep charging up the cards, then they borrow on the house to get more credit opened up on the cards and then charge up the cards again.

    Overall personal debt is at all time highs over 1 trillion dollars, student loans are at all time highs over 1 trillion dollars and the new car market is doing well because the outstanding loans are at all time highs of about 1.1 trillion and the sub prime loans in this group are also at all time highs of more then 30%.

    The post 2008 recession recovery has never happened despite rumors to the contrary.

    The bond market is wavering, there are more working age adults out of work now then in the last 30 years. The unemployment rates do not reflect this because the math they use now is only looking at recently unemployed.

    Wall street is the only bright spot, but only because of Trumps win.

    Any one that can do the math will understand the deep shft we are in. Don't stop prepping!!!!!!
     
  4. BillS

    BillS Well-Known Member

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    Obamacare has been the biggest factor in the destruction of the economy. Big companies eliminated their full time help. If you thought it was hard to survive working for Target for 40 hours a week just try surviving on 30 hours a week.

    One reason the economy is tanking is the economic effects of liberalism. The minimum wage is the perfect example. Unemployment goes up whenever the minimum wage is raised. Right now the push by the left to have a $15 minimum wage is leading to increased automation in the fast food industry. Companies that can't sufficiently automate will fail.

    The other big reason the economy is tanking is the actions of the Federal Reserve. They've kept interest rates artificially low to fund the federal government at artificially low rates. That's killed retired people trying to earn interest on their savings. It's forced pension funds into the stock market and there's a huge crash coming.
     
  5. AmmoSgt

    AmmoSgt ExCommunicated

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    The minimum wage is not, imho, a perfect example ( mind you I am against a minimum wage on principle , reality forces me to have another point of view) . employers have right, even an obligation, to make a profit from each person they hire and should, in an ideal world, never hire somebody that costs more than the worth of what they produce. However as things now stand the employers pay low wages and reap extraordinary profits and fob the cost of a living wage off on the taxpayer by subsidizing low wages thru everything from subsidized health care to rent assistance to food stamps.

    To me this means the taxpayers thru the government should /must mandate wages that do not force the taxpayer to support working people ( I think as a nation we have an obligation to support or make it possible for folks who are too old or too disabled or to infirm to provide a profitable level of productive participation or a dignified retirement with participation of the citizen thru their working life , but always with a bias to providing a possibility of productive participation over just a substance stipend )

    This is where principle and optics gets in the way of practicality. A $15 minimum wage in all practicality makes folks earning it ineligible for taxpayer government support and puts the full burden on the employer and the customer .. while increasing unemployment somewhat, that in all humanity , mandates some minimal level of government support. I would, in the short term, increase the cost of that support if training to be productive was included in the minimal level of support.

    It is practically a zero sum game.. lower prices supported by tax payer employee subsidies V Higher prices with no tax payer subsidies

    As an example of a complex many moving parts problem, minimum wage is a prefect example of the interactive complexity of any issue, this one involving human dignity, price point , profit, government intervention , human nature, private enterprise , and the laws of economics .
     
  6. CrackbottomLouis

    CrackbottomLouis Winston Smith Sent Me

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    I don't think using the struggles of retail industry to highlight coming hard times is accurate. While that industry is drowning it is because our economy is shifting away from that business model in the face of new technology.

    You are right about the auto debt. It's at about 1.3 trillion now and, imo , the next bubble. My brother has been in that industry for years and has shifted his finance company completely out of auto loans over the last 2year's because the bubble will pop sooner rather than later. I cant believe it hasnt popped yet. It is a much smaller market that the housing market though so it won't sink us on its own like 2008.

    Student loan debt is another bubble. Don't know how that's going to play out.

    I think what is actually coming down the pipes will surprise a lot of folks. I think people just haven't realised there will be no retirement. All those 401k's and retirement accounts are invested in smoke and mirrors. Shoot, most companies aren't even using gap accounting. I truly believe there is just nothing there. All our accumulated wealth is nothing but a lie. The Ponzi scheme is nearing it's end and madoff is going to look like a rank amateur. We have traded all our wealth to keep the system going and it's going to be a rude awakening when we try and live off what we have earned only to find the coffers bare.
     
  7. hiwall

    hiwall Just walking at the edge of my grave

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    After having at or near zero interest rates for so long when interest rates finally go up (and I assume at some point they will) the bond market market will really be in turmoil.
    And all the debt that every country has (especially the USA) when those interest rates go up all those countries will be in trouble because of all the interest they will have to pay on that mountain of debt.
    Trump can have no real effect on these things. He can not 'pay down' the US debt either. It would be like one determined man with a shovel trying to fill in the Grand Canyon.
    I honestly can not see a way out of this huge debt mountain or debt bubble or whatever you choose to call it, without causing the general population an awful lot of pain.
     
  8. Caribou

    Caribou Time Traveler

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    They have been using inflation to pay off the debt for generations. Borrow a dollar and pay it back twenty years later with a dime.

    The problem is that we keep borrowing more. I don't remember the last balanced budget. We have paid off our debt in the past but that is a rare occurrence.

    We might have a chance to balance our budget and pay of the debt if we can get rid of most welfare. This will require term limits as the legislators are using handouts too buy votes.
     
  9. CrackbottomLouis

    CrackbottomLouis Winston Smith Sent Me

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    The only thing Trump can do, which he is trying to attempt, is to provide the leadership necessary to improve our economy to the point where we are generating a lot more income. We can only do a couple things. Tax at a massively increased rate or generate more income in the private sector and increase our wealth with new and expanding business. We can't do both because they inversely effect each other. He is making the right choice where the platform of the liberal progressives generally chose the other which is much like shooting yourself in the foot. Hopefully we can improve to the point we can tackle a more serious solution to the issue but , imo, all we will do with anything but dramatic short term suffering in the form of a reset back to sound money principles is delay the inevitable.
     
  10. readytogo

    readytogo ExCommunicated

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    The economy is an up and down thing we all know this but as an individual with a family I`m very concern with the smaller economy ,my own ,I try to stay away from the credit traps and the influence of the commercialism we face everyday ,is hard on a family and it creates pressure .especially if you have kids demanding the latest gadgets and give in.I over heard a conversation of a young in the grocery store that said it all ,he was listing the bills; cell phone ,two cars ,insurances, mortgage, internet , water bill ,fuel ,cable and more while holding a $500.00 cell phone and I notice a fancy gold watch on her. There is no way I bypass a good meal for a iPhone or TV ,this new generation today has lost all recollection of saving for that rainy day nor prepared for a emergency or even know how ,even parents today fail to teach this matters because they themselves don`t know how to make a fried doughnut, is sad and scary because if the shtf those same people will turn on you or riot. My new neighbors just came here from Spain ,they can`t get a legal job till one year in country ,he works add jobs but they have fancy iPhones and a $120 monthly wifi service ,constantly on those danm things and complaining all the time about prices and other things .I told them that going back was easy to do hell.
     
  11. bkt

    bkt Well-Known Member

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    As preppers, we should keep an ear to the ground regarding economics. Get out of debt as much as possible and don't take on new debt if you can avoid it. Hedge against the currency failing by storing part of your wealth in other things. Store as much of the consumable items you use as reasonably possible and learn ways to replace them other than by going to the store to buy new items. That's my $0.02.

    The best thing government could do to improve the economy is to get out of the way of the everyday person and let them conduct business unencumbered by excessive regulations.
     
  12. AmishHeart

    AmishHeart Well-Known Member

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    It's all good that Trump was talking about all the money he's going to bring back in. Problem is, he's talking about doing alot of new things that cost alot more money.

    It's good to teach are young ones now about the difference between wants and needs. Especially when it comes to things like phones. I have an old flip phone that works just fine. I have a laptop when I need to be on the internet. I cook most of our meals at home. This all saves alot of money. Grandkids that live with us don't have phones, and won't get one from me. It was a little awkward for them on school "play day" afternoon (middle school) where kids were allowed to bring their phones and play games all afternoon. I told them to try and find a friend to visit with. Visiting is a lost art.
     
  13. AmmoSgt

    AmmoSgt ExCommunicated

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    Were only that could be true.

    The bottom line is Trump thinks you are idiots and makes promises that can't work or are based on total hoakum but sound good to you. Trump thinks you are as stupid as he is. And he won't back down from a position when the facts not only show that the promise was not possible to keep , but that you couldn't understand why it was impossible or the worst possible course of action... Trump knows you are loyal unto death and have no concern about what is best for this Nation or even what is possible to do.

    Two concrete examples

    American steel for American pipelines . I pointed out last week we don't make the right kind of steel in the right sizes for the Keystone and XL projects .. It's not that we can't.. we have a free economy.. steel companies are free to make what sells in quantities that justify the facilities and tooling to make it .. Steel of that quality and size and shape is a low demand item, a couple of plants on the planet can handle world demand . An Indian owned company in Arkansas and Russian company in Canada make it.

    So promise broken http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...-pledge/ar-AAnNmOz?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp which is a good thing we need those pipelines.. Trump shot off his mouth and made promises with no freaking clue what he was talking about. But they really did sound good at the time, even I thought so on this one.. we need the pipelines don't let the possible be the enemy of the perfect.

    And now we have the leaked DHS report on who does terrorism http://www.salon.com/2017/03/03/dhs...orn-terrorists-become-radicalized-in-the-u-s/

    It isn't even classified, it is "For Official Use Only", which, if you look it up, are handling instructions , not a level of classification ( we can argue over if providing facts to a public debate is an official use of a government report, I say it is) . All Trumps General's are begging him to back off the travel ban as a bad idea. Trump is trying like hell to write a ban that gets around the Constitution, the problem being the Government has to have some interest , even at the lowest level of judicial scrutiny, to interfere or restrict at all .. The EO has to, in some way, fix or mitigate the problem, that is in fact a problem. the problem is not there when people first come in to the US.. it is after years of being treated as "others" that the problem begins to develop. That what they had always believed about America that made them want to give up the land of their birth, friends, family, a whole life, for a better life was not was true as what ISIS said was a land of bigots and hate . .. here we have an EO and a whole lot of campaign rhetoric that aggravates and angers people already here.. that plows the ground for the seeds of discontent and radicalization, that plays into the recruiting slogans and rhetoric of Al Qaeda and ISIS and that prompts otherwise sane American to act like bigots instead of brothers making so much of how ISIS portrays us as true in fact.
    Trump didn't have a clue.. he thought he knew more than the Generals and that his brain was his best advisor and counselor ( that should have been a more obvious clue to far more people than it was) and policies like this cause problems on the ground between out troops, the host nation, and their troops, and the folks who hate ISIS as much as we do, and step up volunteer to help with intelligence and translation .. The Generals are begging trump , as a minimum , to take Iraq off the list.. they can't even get that much.. because this what Trump campaigned on.. facts and access to higher levels of intelligence reports be damned .. he made you a promise...

    The third course of action, the third way... whatever the &**^% happened to sound good at the time, and got a cheer at a rally..

    Trump doesn't want to look wrong and he doesn't think you can possible understand a reasonable explanation as to why a promise has to be broken for the good of the Nation in favor of a more practical course of action or a more effective course of action ...

    And he knows you don't care either, you were promised and Trump is always right.

    Trump is a human being.. he has good ideas and some real boners .. sometimes the better way is counterintuitive, or requires some level of expertise or sophistication ... and to implement it, some degree of leadership to get the people on the right course, the better side of an issue , even If the instinct is to blame the wrong target and not apply American principles to folks that don't look like Americans to you.

    And before I get complaints, I am not accusing anybody here or reading this or even Trump, of being stupid.. the policies and promises have been stupid, and everybody is human, and can screw up complex ideas or sound good promises, that, with just a little more study, or a second look, or after having some assumptions challenged and honestly evaluated, they would never have made in the first place. Trump is acting like he doesn't think you could possibly get that.

    A lot of this has been Trump shooting from the lips .. the ideas have now been thru some public review and debate , not just these two , many proposed ideas .. some of which Trump got right, some he didn't, some that are still up for review as the course of nations move into the fog of the future.

    now the only problem is that the facts do not seem to matter and no change, upon reflection and fuller understanding of problems and fixes seems possible.

    Trump hates to be wrong ( more than most) and fears disappointing you and your wrath if he has to , in the name of doing what is best for the nation , break a promise

    That is a suicide pact.

    this is a supply of extra commas to be used as needed ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

    in an earlier post a Point was lost for the want of a comma
     
  14. CrackbottomLouis

    CrackbottomLouis Winston Smith Sent Me

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    Blah, blah, blah
     
  15. hiwall

    hiwall Just walking at the edge of my grave

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    Supposedly the idea of the fed lowering interest rates was to free up money to boost the economy. This never happened(other than the stock market). If interest rates do go up money (loans) will be even harder to get.
    Right now home ownership is at the lowest its been for decades and this is at a time when interest rates are at record lows. When rates go up there will be even fewer people that can afford a house. The housing market looks rather grim.
    Then there is over one trillion in student loans of which a very large percentage are way in arrears. A big chunk of those with student loans believe that the loans will be "forgiven". The whole student loan thing looks rather grim.
    Car sales have been a big part of consumer spending for several years. Car companies believe they have plateaued or reached their peak. Some expect a slump in new cars sales. Also they expect a big flood of close to new returned lease vehicles on dealer lots. Overall the car business looks rather grim.
    Businesses open and some businesses fail. It has always been that way. But for the last couple years now the number of closing businesses have exceeded the number of new opening businesses. Overall the retail business looks rather grim.
    Health insurance rates are skyrocketing and have been for a few years. There is no stopping that trend no matter what if anything Congress does. Overall the health care looks rather grim.
    The cost to government for Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security is rising at a rapid pace with no end in sight. On the contrary many see the aging baby boomers as fueling an even faster rise in costs. This amounts to a huge amount of un-funded liabilities for the US government. The US debt clock estimates the un-funded liabilities to be an unheard of number at 105 trillion dollars!
    Yes we all pay into Social Security and to Medicare but our ever wise Congress has spent all the savings we had. Now what is coming in does not come close to paying what is going out. Overall this un-funded liabilities situation look rather grim.
     
  16. CrackbottomLouis

    CrackbottomLouis Winston Smith Sent Me

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    There are certainly a lot of bubbles on the horizon. Student loans and car debt combined are over 2 trillion. Home sales are actually up across the board. I think the low home ownership rates have more to do with millennials waiting far longer to purchase homes. This may be, in part, to student debt. Although the housing market could be better (says the real estate agent trying to make a sale or 2) I don't think we are in a crisis like what led up to 2008. Our unfunded liabilities are a giant mess and a noose around our neck. I cant understand how government thought it could just spend the safety net retirement fund of the nation on whatever it pleased. If a private company tried that there would be folks going to jail.
     
  17. Viking

    Viking Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like you've been reading some of the same things I have, a lot of the stuff I've been studying has come from Kitco Contributing Commentators.
     
  18. Caribou

    Caribou Time Traveler

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    Is it your goal to pick a fight with this post? Trump thinks we're as stupid as he is? Are you suggesting that he thinks we are all of high intelligence? I can't imagine that you mean that a self made billionaire is somehow retarded.

    Where do you get this idea that we can't build the pipe in America? That does not seem accurate to me. Even if it is I submit that several hundred miles of pipe is worth retooling for. Then you list two plants that can make the pipe. If that is accurate then it would seem that the Canadians have their pipe covered. Perhaps if we offer Arkansas a statehood we can have ours manufactured in America and President Trump can keep his promise.

    Two final remarks about your post. I really like your "shooting from the lips" remark, that is funny. Be careful about inviting people to punctuate your posts as that could get you in more trouble than getting your own punctuation wrong.
     
  19. CrackbottomLouis

    CrackbottomLouis Winston Smith Sent Me

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    Haven't actually been reading anything from them but you have me interested now. I'll go check em out.
     
  20. AmishHeart

    AmishHeart Well-Known Member

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