When to Bug Out?

Discussion in 'General Preparedness Discussion' started by shamgar57, May 30, 2009.

  1. shamgar57

    shamgar57 Guest

    1
    0
    I'm a newbie on the board. I was just wondering from some of the vets what you would suggest as early warning signs before bugging out. I have a wife and three small children and the safe location would be a fourteen hour drive.

    Things seem to be picking up and was just curious on some of your thoughts.

    Thanks in advance.
     
  2. NaeKid

    NaeKid YourAdministrator, eh?

    8,000
    10
    Keep your radio on - or - better yet, have a police-band radio so that you can hear reports earlier than the rest of the population. Have a weather-radio handy that puts out weather-warnings.

    Bugging Out can mean all kinds of different things.

    If you are at work - it means getting home as fast as humanly possible to take care of whatever needs to be taken care of.

    If you are at home - it means getting everything together and getting out of dodge ..
     

  3. Canadian

    Canadian Well-Known Member

    1,512
    0
    Listen to the news. That'll take care of most of it.
     
  4. dukman

    dukman Greenhorn

    96
    0
    It really depends on WHY you are bugging out. Natural Disaster? Most natural disasters don't require bugging out, they require bugging in. Hurricanes are a different story. Just keep watching the news about any incoming tropical storms.

    If you are worried about a attack from the skies or a dirty bomb, keep the radio on. When you first here even the tiniest of stories about something near your town, start calling friends to have someone check it out, either via internet or another phone-a-friend.

    If you are just worried in general about the state of the country.... well, that all depends on who you ask. There are some people that will bug out if they just HEAR of a big protest that MIGHT take place. Most people won't actually bug out due to the economy tho, because most of the sheeple won't think of getting the heck out of dodge. BUT, once disarray starts to take hold, coyotes will start emerging to loot people when given the chance. You need to get out before that happens.

    14 hours is a long haul, so you need to make sure you have it planned well, with alternate routes in case of rioting like what was seen in LA after the Rodney King stuff. I would be worrying a lot more about the preps than the actually timing. You will know when it is time. And you better have the Jerry cans ready and the clips loaded.

    The trip can be accomplished in a single day, but don't forget to plan for an overnight evacuation if need be. In that instance, have a back-up driver sleep the first couple hours and swap off.
     
  5. sailaway

    sailaway Well-Known Member

    1,922
    0
    Good topic, I guess you just know when it is right and get a short jump on the masses. A police radio sounds like a good idea. I watched Hurricane Andrew come across the Atlantic and was prepared with a day to go. I don't know about civil disobedience though, when things get bad enough even the police will quit doing their jobs and disappear. Then the national guard will come in. I am troubled by all the prisons around the State of Ohio with the razor wire walls. There are so many of them. I wonder what they will be used for in the future. In thinking about the Holocost I wonder when it will be time to go, when society hunts certain sub cultures, will I be one of them. In a large concentrated population I think just blending in is a good idea. I don't want to look like I have anything or know what's going on, I just want to subtly disappear.:confused:
     
  6. Fn/Form

    Fn/Form Function over Form

    524
    1
    IMO, getting out quick is the best... you will never get caught in a local disaster. Beating traffic is also way better than waiting to see what happens and then getting stuck in traffic or waiting until the initial rush is over and having to drive through now-unsafe areas that may also be void of any resources (such as gas, water or lodging). So, leaving early is best... however, most of us have jobs, family, property and other concerns that give us pause. We can't just run at the drop of a hat.

    If I had little ones and only my spouse, and a good place to go to, I'd probably bug out as early as serious warning signs surface. The reason being that security concerns alone are taxing, and sharing them between only two people (one of whom is commonly lesser able in protection than the other) is alot of stress and time, let alone working through power outages, curfews, etc. with little kiddos around.

    If I had older children or friends trustworthy and capable of taking up security responsibilities, and sufficient preparation, I'd be likely to tough it out if it is something that will pass.

    A police scanner might be worth your while if your local law enforcement has a simple radio system with not too many channels. You will need to learn the local codes, lingo and procedures to make sense of it all.

    That said, most metro areas are going to digital systems that maximize bandwith, clarity, versatility and features (APCO Plan 25, aka P25). Encryption is one of those features, and some metro areas already use encryption 95% of the time (San Antonio is one, I think). Also, there may be many, many digital talkgroups you will have to wade through to find what you want. It is not uncommon for police ops to be moved to an events or tac channel to help keep the scene info more private. Some of those channels are not listed. Such a P25 scanner will cost $450-500 new and has a steep learning curve, but the audio is great and the software (aftermarket, especially) is very customizable.

    A great resource for frequencies, equipment and programming info is:
    RadioReference.com
     
  7. wildman800

    wildman800 Well-Known Member

    112
    0
    This how I determine to Bug Out or In, and when:

    HurCon Checklist
    Updated 01Jun08



    5= Set during Hurricane Season (01Jun-01Dec)
    4=Hurricane Force winds are expected within 72 hours
    3= Hurricane Force winds are expected within 48 hours
    2= Hurricane Force winds are expected within 24 hours
    1= Hurricane Force winds are imminent or are being experienced


    HURRICANE SEASON: regular season – 01June through 01December

    HurCon 5: Automatically set at the beginning of Hurricane Season (01Jun) and is automatically secured at the end of the Hurricane Season (01Dec). Upon setting HurCon 5:
    Update emergency supply inventory
    Top off all 5gal gas cans (stabilized)
    Swap out all stored water
    Update the Hurricane Contingency Plans
    Review the plans with Household members.
    Test run the generator for 30 mins.

    HurCon 4: Set when expected landfall is within 72 hours and within range to affect the family. Upon setting HurCon 4:
    Go to Home Depot and pick up a sufficient quantity of 2" deck screws (if in short supply), 1"x4" and 1"x12" pine boards to install shutters over the windows and doors (1"x4") that have them and to board up over the few windows that don't have shutters (1”x12”).
    Keep the vehicle gas tanks above 1/2 tank levels.
    Go to the grocery store and top off the pantry with normal foodstuffs.
    Insure that all propane bottles are topped off.
    Insure that battery supplies are sufficient.
    Insure that flashlights and lanterns are working.
    Check oil and run generator for 30 minutes to insure proper operation.
    Get all the money we can get from the ATM 24 - 48 hours of a probable impact on our coast. (once the hurricane hits and leaves, everything is cash only, no money - no nothing for days)
    Review Bug Out options based on storm strength, predicted landfall, host locations available, likely storm path after landfall.

    HurCon 3: Set when expected landfall is 48 hours away and is close enough to affect the family. Upon setting HurCon 3:
    Review checklists for any missing items or chores that remain to be done.
    Top off all vehicle fuel tanks.
    Decide on whether to Bug Out or to shelter in place; if Bugging Out - this is the time to leave. If Bugging Out – execute Nuclear War Survival Skills; Chapter 4/Evacuation.

    HurCon 2: Set when expected landfall is 24 hours away and is close enough to affect the family location. Upon setting HurCon 2:
    Prepare our Hurricane Shelter area within the house (the main hall next to the bathroom).
    Secure all missile hazards in the yard. Tie down everything that needs tying down.
    Install shutters or board up all windows and doors, except for 1 front door and 1 back door.
    Top off all BOB's.
    Gather all important documents, BOB, and firearms (the ones I plan to carry) and put it by the bed.
    Set up a communications watch. Use 2 programs to monitor storm (Radio and T.V.) and then switch to wind up solar radio once power is lost.
    Use cargo net to secure backyard storage building.

    HurCon 1: Set just prior to expected landfall.
    Set up in the Hurricane Shelter (inside of my home) and start dealing cards.
    Visually monitor what the storm is doing to the neighborhood (from the safety of the house), for the duration of the storm.
    Be prepared to grab BOB's and run to higher ground, if worse case scenario were to develop.
    Keep BoB’s and important documents with each person until the storm has cleared the area.
    Maintain the communications watch. Use 2 programs to monitor storm (Radio and T.V.) and then switch to wind up solar radio once power is lost.



    Post-Hurricane Checklist
    1) Once storm passes then either store the stuff until next hurricane, or fire up the generator (Outside) and wait days for power or grab BOB and head for car or and head out on foot.



    ThreatCon Checklist
    Updated 09Jun07



    5=definite threat possibility with no specific intel.
    4=event could occur/start in 3 months - no specific intel.
    3=event could occur/start in 1 month – no specific intel
    2=event may occur/start in 2 weeks - specific intel (includes “special” dates)
    1=event may or is occurring/specific intel or news of an incident


    ThreatCon 5: Upon setting ThreatCon 5:
    HSD (green) Low
    MARSEC 1
    DefCon 5
    Have a “Family Plan” of what to do and where and how to meet in the event of an incident. Insure all family members are thoroughly briefed.
    Ensure that basic supplies are kept at home for a minimum of 72 hours (3 days) sustenance/maintenance.
    Know where the other family members are, when not at home.


    ThreatCon 4: Upon setting ThreatCon 4:
    HSD (blue) Guarded
    MARSEC 1
    DefCon 4
    Ensure that basic supplies are kept at home for a minimum of 144 hours (6 days) sustenance/maintenance.
    Know where the other family members are, when not at home.


    ThreatCon 3: Upon setting ThreatCon 3: (This is the NORMAL level in the USA)
    HSD (yellow) Elevated
    MARSEC 1
    DefCon 3
    Ensure that basic supplies are kept at home for a minimum of 3 months sustenance/maintenance.
    Know where the other family members are, when not at home.
    Keep fuel tanks in vehicles above the Half Full mark.
    Sound out your neighbors about the situation and find out what their “worst scenario” concerns are.




    ThreatCon 2: Upon setting ThreatCon 2:
    HSD (orange) High
    MARSEC 2
    DefCon 2
    Ensure that basic supplies are kept at home for a minimum of 6 – 12 months sustenance/maintenance.
    Keep Family Members close to home. Know everybody’s whereabouts.
    Keep fuel tanks in vehicles above the ¾ full level.
    Top off stored gasoline (stabilized) cans and propane tanks.
    Insure that proper supplies are on hand for special needs persons and for the pets.
    Sound out your neighbors about the situation and find out what their “worst scenario” concerns are.


    ThreatCon 1: Upon setting ThreatCon 1:
    HSD (red) Severe
    MARSEC 3
    DefCon 1
    Consume foods in the freezer and refrigerator first.
    Have all Family Members return or stay at home.
    Top off vehicle fuel tanks, if it can be safely done.
    Monitor the news/internet to determine the threat and subsequent events that must be guarded against.
    Sound out your neighbors about the situation and find out what their “worst scenario” concerns are. Attempt to make agreements for mutual aid and defense.


    ThreatCon 1CBR: (Chemical, Biological, Radiological)
    Execute either the “Shelter-at-Home” plan or the “Bug Out” plan.
    A) If sheltering, set up the shelter according to plan.
    B) Set up extra available beds but wait until there is an actual fallout warning before moving the last of the beds into the shelter and boarding up the port garage door.
    C) Continue to live in the house until there is a need to go into the shelter.
    D)
    Get everyone home immediately.
    When time allows, check with your neighbors, help where you can; physically and informationally.
    Establish basic property defenses, consult with neighbors to enlist their assistance in setting up their basic defenses.
    E) Move vehicles into defensive perimeter defensive positions
    F)
    Establish a communications monitoring watch ASAP to gather Intel.
    Get the Kearney Fallout Meter (KFM) online ASAP and begin monitoring.
    Establish a communications system with cooperative neighbors.
    Erect anemometer to start trickle charging batteries


    ThreatCon 1J: (Jihadists)
    Execute either the “Shelter-at-home” plan or the “Bug Out” plan.
    Get everyone home immediately.
    Arm and establish a Security Watch of the property perimeter.
    Establish a communications monitoring watch ASAP to gather Intel.
    When time allows, check with your neighbors, help where you can; physically and informationally.
    Establish basic property defenses, consult with neighbors to enlist their assistance in setting up their basic defenses.
    Establish a communications system with cooperative neighbors.



    ThreatCon 1 C: (Civil Disturbances/Unrest)
    Execute either the “Shelter-at-Home” plan or the “Bug Out” plan.
    Get everyone home immediately.
    Arm and establish a Security Watch of the property perimeter.
    Establish a communications monitoring watch ASAP to gather Intel.
    When time allows, check with your neighbors, help where you can; physically and informationally.
    Establish basic property defenses, consult with neighbors to enlist their assistance in setting up their basic defenses.
    Establish a communications system with cooperative neighbors.


    I hope y'all find these Conditions useful in answering this Bug Out or In question.
     
  8. AlwaysPrepared

    AlwaysPrepared Guest

    6
    0

    Thank You so much for posting that!!! I am using yours to make my own.
     
  9. OldFashionedMama

    OldFashionedMama Partyin' like it's 1699

    216
    0
    My dad is actively involved in the North East Ohio Defense Force. They have organized a location near his residence where everyone will meet in case of "whatever". He has given everyone in the family a special coin which we will present at the location to let them know we have been given permission to be there. So at least I know WHERE to Bug Out. Now, as for WHEN?, I'm sure the news or my dad and all of his NEODF people will let us know ;)
     
  10. pdx210

    pdx210 Well-Known Member

    320
    0
    The time to bug out …. Before the human cattle panic you want to be well ahead, to the side or sometimes behind yes you may be better staying put and not bugging out
     
  11. ZoomZoom

    ZoomZoom Rookie Prepper

    4,106
    13,758
    Not sure if this member is still here but I'd propose you find an alternate location. IMHO, that's waaaayyyyyy to far away.

    If it's a local or regional issue (e.g. tornado, hurricane, localized civil unrest...), you could probably get in the clear by going a couple hours.

    If it's something big (nuclear, chemical, biological...), everybody and their brother is going to know about it the same time. There would be a mass exodus and the roads will be gridlocked in very short order.

    I'd plan on somewhere that could be reached on 1/2 tank of fuel.

    Also, let's say that the situation has arisen that it's time to bug out. What if you can't? I'd make arrangements to prepare that you're staying in or maybe going a short distance on-foot (e.g. to avoid a flood-prone area). Basically, make sure you have what you need to stay put although the situation dictates the best approach is to get out.
     
  12. sailaway

    sailaway Well-Known Member

    1,922
    0
    I agree with the half tank of gas BAL, but you may need to get further away from society than that in your population area. Also, I have a nuclear reactor in my back yard and would love to know how far to get away from it. I am unfortunately down wind from it. I do like one area near by, a marsh area with lots of deer and pheasants. There is a water area near by with lots of good fishing. The only problem is you can see the Nuke 20 miles away.:(
     
  13. ZoomZoom

    ZoomZoom Rookie Prepper

    4,106
    13,758
    I too am just downwind from a Nuke plant but I'm much closer. There are so many automatic and manual safeguards on them that you shouldn't have to worry much about them but I'm heading away from them should something happen.
     
  14. UncleJoe

    UncleJoe Well-Known Member

    6,764
    108
    The best way to know that it's time to BO is when the MSM says:

    STAY CALM. THERE'S NO NEED TO PANIC.
     
  15. sailaway

    sailaway Well-Known Member

    1,922
    0
    Uncle Joe's right, he knows when it's time to bug out!!!!, as for safe guards on the nuke, I'm concerned about it being on a hit list if we are ever attacked. The nuke I am talking about is Davis Bessie, they found an acid burn the size of a football in the reactor lid and shut it down for a couple of years while they investigated.:woohoo::gaah::nuts::confused:
     
  16. pdx210

    pdx210 Well-Known Member

    320
    0


    I don't ....what happens when the rest of society uses their half a tank of gas to get away you might be in a worse place than you left
     
  17. ZoomZoom

    ZoomZoom Rookie Prepper

    4,106
    13,758
    My reasoning is as follows but this is subject to change based on the reason for bugging out.
    A half tank of gas will get you around 200 miles. After that, you're probably just as close to another city that's trying to bug out.
    You have 1/2 tank to get you to xxxxx (where xxxxx is either home or some other destination). Depending on the situation, you may not be able to get gas at a station. That 1/2 tank is your reserve.
    Even if you have a 1-2 hour jump on the masses that also plan on bugging out, there will come a time when gridlock will occur. I'd rather already be at my BOL as opposed to stuck on the road. Worst case is you start walking. If the BOL is too far away, you may be making some unwanted changes on-the-fly (or on-the-foot as the case may be).
     
  18. oggieja

    oggieja Junior Member

    1
    0
    I love your list. I too will be making my own and using your's as a reference.
     
  19. pdx210

    pdx210 Well-Known Member

    320
    0
    what happens if you get to your BOL and someone else is there what if there are more of them than you what if they are better armed :cry:
     
  20. bunkerbob

    bunkerbob Supporting Member

    1,733
    6
    Isn't that the scenario in the book, Lucifer's Hammer, when the scientist finally made it to the observatory that he had pre-provisioned with the help of his assistant, who, made it there first and told him to leave or he would kill him.:mad: