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Discussion in 'Money, Investing & Precious Metals' started by Viking, Jul 15, 2009.
Kitco - Commentaries - John A. Rubino FOFOA
ok, all ya'all on this forum can send ME all your $$$ :2thumb:
Yep, the flush is coming. That's why I stockpile gold.
probably, that's why I stockpile FOOD... and ammo for when :shtf:
It's a good thing I don't own a fan!
Thoughts on Silver? When the $ was once backed by gold, a troy oz silver was priced at 1/16 to that of a troy oz of gold. Silver is trading at about 13.50 and gold mid 900s.
So here are a couple thoughts & concerns of mine. Do I buy silver in hope that if the $ collapses gold is rise. It should rise until it hits a par value with the market... I'm guessing the market drop to about 4K on the DOW and gold reaching about 2-3k. If that is the case we could easily see silver hit about 250 if it gets back to 1/16th price point compared to that of gold. SO... would you still rather own gold over silver with a small discressionary budget of 5k to spend on hard assets?
Take food out of the equation since we're covered there.
So... a couple yrs out... the $ is **** and the US is a mess. What are the chances that metals can be traded? could there be a point where people just want to barter for coffee, food, seeds, alcohol, weed, medical supplies.. whatever...
would you rather try to play the move to par value with silver to gold or would you rather stock up on supplies that you could trade?
I plan on keeping the gold and my smaller supply of silver for the recovery. There will be a recovery at some point. When the turn around begins I'm going to use the gold to buy real estate. Property values will be heavily depressed and people will be wanting to sell their over leveraged properties.
What about a prolonged depression with a worthless currency?
are you considering items to trade with?
That is why I signed a new year lease... If the value goes down the toilet, I should have no problem affording my rent
I am accumulating some gold and silver. My focus has been on consumables for barter.
Based on the stories I heard from my grandparents they made it throught the Great Depression through barter. the items needed for everyday life were much more valuable than gold or silver.
That's kinda what I was guessing.. Still grabbed another 150oz of silver today though.
Ok.... here's another question. Do you think the prices of herb, alcohol and tobacco will go up or down in a depression? Two of which can be easily produced and made available for trade.
Alcohol USED to be seen as a 'recession-proof' good. The current downturn is changing that way of thinking as cutbacks in spending, consumption, and on-premise drinking occur more & more.
Spring of 2008, Nielsen survey to see how the economy was affecting alcohol consumption.
Of wine drinkers, 49% said the economy has had “no effect” on the amount they spend, while 37% said “just a little” and 13% said “significantly.”
While 48% of spirit drinkers reported “no effect,” while 34% said “just a little” and 17% claimed a significant difference in spending.
Beer drinkers had 47% saying that their spending hadn’t changed, while 40% said “just a little” and 13% said “significantly,” according to Nielsen.
But in January of 2009, the industry was reporting a 'big change'. The big change in behavior is what is called off-premise drinking i.e. carry-out as opposed to drinks in restaurants and bars in order to cut their costs.
Consumers are eating out less as they try to save money, and when they do go, it appears that they are limiting themselves on what they order. On-premise volume fell more than two percent last year.
Instead, people are drinking at home and buying from stores with off-premise volume rose three percent for the year.
Heineken sales sank 18% from the previous year in grocery, convenience and drug stores during the two-week period around the 4th of July holiday, followed by Budweiser at 14%. Corona sales dropped 11%, while Miller Lite declined 9% and Bud Light fell 7%... Coors Light sales fell less than 1%.
Meanwhile, sales of “subpremium” beers including Busch, Natural Light and Keystone posted “substantial gains”, according to Ad Age.
idk the #s tho
interesting stats Blob.. I heard about the reports of more home consumption as opposed to dining out but didn't know the details of the #s.
My question earlier probably wasn't that clear. So let me phrase it like this:
6 month or 2 yrs from now. The US$ has completely collapsed. Gold is up to 3k an oz. The dow is down to 4k points. complete chaos with the loss of jobs and riots have taken place leaving stores empty. We're all either working as collective groups, sheltering in place with family and friends, reaching for what ever can be found in the way of handouts, or taking from others...
Of course we have to go with the assumption that the Gov has fallen apart and local law enforcement doesn't care about these laws in question here.. Obviously hypothetical.
So, within this environment, what are the thoughts of growing herb and making alcohol to use as means to barter and trade? Also keep in mind that the alcohol can be used for med purposes as well.
Would you get hammered if you knew that at any moment your home could come under attack?
Just about everyone will be staying off the sauce.
I wouldn't..... but you know there will be down time at points and people will be looking for an escape-release and or need for medical purposes. My point is not to use it but rather the thoughts of producing to use for trade purposes. Unlike other items you have to stockpile and have limited space for... these two items can be reproduced over and over again.
Anything else of that nature that you could think of?
common sense might dictate that... but just how common is that, really?
People want what they want and in the end they are resourceful enough to get it one way or another. Almost 25 yrs. ago I drank and drugged my way into a popular 12 step addiction program. It was the biggest pay raise I ever gave my self. I could make a fortune dealing now, but I have a conscience. I also don't need to escape from my problems, instead I face them head on. As for others drinking in my immediate family of about 40 aunts, uncles and cousins most of them either home brew beer or ferment wine. At Christmas they all get together and sample each others wares and comment on them. Last Christmas I was with them listening to the chatter about this beer and that wine. I then piped up and said I used to grow marijuana, the place got so quiet you could hear a pin drop. As the price of commodities go up substitutes become available. When people can't afford to drink in public, they will drink at home. A typical drink in a bar now costs $10.00, who has money for that? When the cost of a 6 pack gets to expensive more people will brew at home. My step son was underage drinker, I suggested to him that he and his buds get on line and learn to home brew. They didn't seem to get arrested anymore.
As for realestate values, I think the crash is definately in my home town, there are empty houses available in alot of neighborhoods for under $10,000.00. My wife an I are looking at a 13 unit for around that price range. The trick is to grow slowly and not become over extended. You have to crawl before you walk, and walk before you run.
People who bought gold low and sell now will do well. People who buy realestate now and sit on it will do well. I don't think the Gubment will let its people be homeless, to much civil unrest. Metro Housing will cover the bills. Everything cycles, you probably wont catch the very bottom or the top, shoot to make moner inbetween. Remember, the bulls make money, the bears make money and the pigs get slaughtered.
Well said Sailaway. I guess there will always be a market for that stuff. In Afghanistan all the farmers want to grow poppies to make base for heroin since it makes the most money.
I have to remember Janis Joplin's song lyrics, "freedoms just another word for nothin left to loose" There's nothing like walking, riding my bicycle or sailing into the sunset.:cry::flower:
I'm not even gona touch the weed comments-to me it's not worth the penalties. That said, I've always wanted to try making whiskey ie moonshine. Just a little for myself. Haven't done so yet but I'd like to someday. In the past (and some now) poor country folks in the South made shine as a way to get by. Some of the distillers got greedy and big but many stayed small and did ok. You just have to watch though because you're going to raise eyebrows when you suddenly start buying sugar in 100 lb bags.
If the country collapses I see this type of thing starting back up. How heavily is legal alcohol taxed? If the gvt is broke they may raise "sin taxes" even higher. Would you rather pay, say, $50 for a 750mL bottle of Mr' Daniel's finest black label or maybe $10 for your neighbor's home made hooch?