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try some what ifs?

2051 Views 15 Replies 13 Participants Last post by  gypsysue
Has anyone run practice senarios of emergency situations , or even made little what if games to check what would happen when ......:confused:
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I have a wife and teenage daughter. Everything is an emergency situation.

Kidding aside, except for "the big one (TEOTWAWKI)", I've been through most of the SHTF scenarios that would befall our family or area. For some emergencies I've played out, timing is the key issue for me. E.g. If there's a 500 year flood in our area, I'm kind of screwed getting to my BOL which is on high ground if I wait too long to get out.
Everybody's WCS will be different. For us down here in the states it's probably a terrorist nuke parked on the National Mall in DC. Everything cascades down from there.

Viral outbreak. Economic (national or worldwide) meltdown. Assassination followed by riots. Those are what I would consider potentially imminent.

Then there are the Hollywood type disasters: 2012. Meteor strike. Yellowstone supervolcano. Collapse of the Canary Islands w/ megatsunami. New ice age. Full on nuclear war.
We're just getting started with what I would consider serious prepping and what-if scenarios have helped us break the analysis log jam in our brains.

On paper, we went through the basic scenarios like loss electricity, natural gas, water, sewers, and/or transportation for up to 7 days, and then came up with some lists of things/skills that would be helpful in each scenario. It showed us where our gaps are which wasn't too bad as we already have a lot of gear/supplies/food/water around the house.

It's been a very helpful exercise that gave us a plan for the next six months of preparation. We'll start tackling some longer-term/lower probability scenarios once we've put preps in place for this first group. We'll also try to do some dry runs for a couple of weekends to see if we really have what we need. Except for the sewers. I have no intention to live without sewers unless I have to. :)
I did a couple weeks ago.

I usually go grocery shopping every Friday. I buy for the week then go home and do projects over the weekend. I rarely leave the homestead until Monday morning for work. We had a discussion at work about just how prepared I really was, with all my supplies and all. I felt confident that if I could get home, I’d be fine. As I was driving home I thought about it, would I really be alright as I sat, with no advance warning or extra time to prepare by filling more water jugs or needing anything from a store I might have forgotten?

So, I decided to skip the store and go home to find out. I decided it would be a no electricity weekend, except for the alarm clock in the bedroom that is, it is a pain to reset! And the fridg, I don’t want to unplug the damn thing or anything else drastic. After all this is just a test, not the real thing! I could have pretended the house was gone and I had to scrounge the yard for my supplies but that is for maybe another time. I went with the most realistic scenario that is likely to happen where I am, loss of power for an extended time.

After I got home and greeted/fed the dog I got to work. Yeah I have to feed her first. Black Labs have those big, sad, old root beer eyes and they can really work them to tear your heart out. Second chore, battery/crank-up radio/clock out and juiced up. Then I took a realistic inventory of what I had on hand. With no rationing I had an easy week of life support available, water was my limiting factor. I would have to drag out the generator and get water from the well after maybe a week. As I recall I can get something like 5 gallons a minute from the hose so 2 - 20 gallon barrels in 8 minutes, 15 minutes as a long time estimate. Tank of gas is supposed to last 8 hours so figure 6 hours, at 15 minutes per I have 24 fills of the barrels at 40 gallons total each run. My 10 gallons of stored gas will do…. I forget but I’m good to go there plus what is in the 2 vehicle’s tanks. Food I am set on until spring and the garden is producing. Sundries I am good for at least a year, longer if I ration.

Thing that surprised me the most was how little I had to change anything I do at home to accommodate this. Other than get out the radio/clock and more candles, everything is readily available w/out much digging or work to find. My frugal (alright so it might be called cheap old bastard) lifestyle also helped me get along w/out electric. The biggest change I had to make was water availability. Using water from jugs is not a real efficient process. I used the ‘solar shower’ apparatus for bathing but needed to make a better arrangement for the kitchen sink. Used a 2.5 gallon pail, ½” bulkhead fitting, some ½” tubing and a shutoff valve. It hangs low enough to be easy to fill but high enough so I have some gravity fed pressure on it. It really was a good exercise, I recommend trying it to see just how you do and what you lack.
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Everybody's WCS will be different. For us down here in the states it's probably a terrorist nuke parked on the National Mall in DC.

Economic (national or worldwide) meltdown. Assassination followed by riots. Those are what I would consider potentially imminent.
have you been reading my x-mas wishlist again?!!?!?? :eek: ;) :rolleyes: :D
Every day is SHTF for some

What amazes me is the degree of what is a SHTF day?.... for some..

70 days ago a bunch of miners were trapped in a they are being fished out thru a hole.. :beercheer:

In Hollyweird Clooney discovered if he poses with poor Africans he gets world wide publicity..:mad:

Paris gets caught with coke.. :eek:BUT! it's ok!!the judge realized the rich are different!!.. :confused:

Lindsy failed another drug. booze test...after only a day out of jail..BUT!! this judge understands that being young and famous and stupid is actually a reasonable excuse to flaunt the laws the mortals have to live by..:club:

Some of you lost your jobs!!:(.. that's a shtf for you!!

My truck is in the shop :hmmm: BUT!! it's covered by warranty :congrat:

I guess my point is that life is full of shtf stuff.. some big some little.. but each important in it's way... not all SHTF days have a mushroom cloud in them.. but still to each of us our shtf is a small mushroom cloud.. so to speak..

now if the dealership says some of my trucks problems are not covered by warranty it's gonna be a bigger cloud for me.. :cry:

Is this post important? hell no..I'm just tired and bored and wanna get back on the road.. but!! you read all the way thru it looking for words of wisdom!! and there were none...happy small shtf to you day !! :smilieimg:
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The way I considered things.
"Will I (and others live through it)"?
If so, it's not a big problem.

Hozay - Don't leave us hanging... What kind of truck and what's wrong with it?
I like to play the what if game. I talked about it in the children prepping thread, so I won't repeat myself here.
Hubby and I play 'what if' to keep ourselves amused on long trips. One thing we had totally missed was if an EMP / CME disabled everything electronic (including his car) while hubby was at work. Now he has a suitable get home bag, and we have scouted routes home for him, as well as planning what we each do in that situation, with no means of communication.

Other what-if scenarios have mostly resulted in refining our preps or plans, which is also good...
The "What if's" are what led to my first story on the fiction threads of this forum, "The Long Ride Home".

When I took the train to Louisiana last spring to ride my bicycle to Michigan I started writing a story of "what if I was back east and the SHTF", and in the story it was an EMP while I was in Mississippi. I had to get home, and part of it was on my bicycle and well, if you want to know the rest, you'll have to find the "fiction" section and read it! Many of you already have.

The same "what ifs" were used in the second story, which involved our kids and grandkids making their way to our homestead in NW Montana after an EMP. That story was fun to write because the kids, their spouses, and our grandkids helped by doing their own "what ifs" about that situation. It also got them in the spirit of prepping and led to them bringing supplies up here so they'd have them already here if the SHTF.

That story was called "The Montana Homestead". The kids got to pick their own "fake" names for the story, and that was fun, too. Lots of laughs, such as when one son-in-law wanted to be called "stud"! Yeah, right!

You can have a lot of fun talking about "what ifs". Practice is great too. Even if it's just eating something weird that you have in long-term storage, just to see what it's like. Everything you practice now, even if only once, is one less unknown later at a time when your life might depend on it.
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When I took the train to Louisiana last spring to ride my bicycle to Michigan I started writing a story of "what if I was back east and the SHTF", .
Gypsie, by golly, if you are on your bike anywhere near the wilds of NEPA when the big one hits, you just pedal on up here. Our gang will make you feel at home. Ya might have to change a dirty diaper or two or shovel some horse poop or help butcher to pay for your room and board, tho. :D But I'd guess that you are a pretty good hand at doing any of that.
You can swing in here and rest for a couple days on your way up to horseman's place. :D
Thanks, horseman and UncleJoe! Maybe I'll have to plan a bicycle trip in your part of the country next time! Be cool to make the rounds and meet all of you!

Same goes for you guys. If you're in the wilds of Montana and the SHTF, I'm sure we can find some work for you to do! :D
You all would be welcome at our place should you find yourself in the SE Arkansas area. We always have plenty to do, so you would not feel as if you were imposing.
Gee, I wasn't that far from you when I made my bicycle trip from Lousiana up through Mississippi and north this past spring! I'd have swung by if I'd known! I'd love to pitch in and help, and share some conversation! Hope to, someday, if this ole world holds together!
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