The phasing of SHTF - My cut at it.

Discussion in 'General Survival Discussion' started by BlueZ, Jul 19, 2017.

  1. BillM

    BillM BillM

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    Phase II, Populations in the cities will not retreat in mass to rural settings . most of them have grown up in the city and they are going to stay there and wait for the government to help them. Hwys will be impassable very quickly and people do not walk anymore. The people in cities will die in mass in their own homes and neighborhoods .
     
  2. capt.

    capt. Well-Known Member

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    Billm I agree , even now the interstates are bumper to bumper and one accident will close the freeway. That's only trout season. Everyone want's to go to granpa's cabin and hunt. I say they can't make it out of the city. Most cannot even read a road map. BUT that's ok.
     

  3. BlueZ

    BlueZ Well-Known Member

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    You guys are correct but that applies to the end of phase one. People will stay as long as possible..
    But when they starve and also there is no water.. they will leave the population centers.
     
  4. capt.

    capt. Well-Known Member

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    They should be walking by then. No one to clear roads. Only those that know how to use compass/road/contour map will be able to go anywhere, the rest will just end up in a circle , depending if they lead with right or left foot. (Gee this looks like we have been here already.)
    There will be enough that will be an issue but real city folk will be stuck in city after only a couple hours of panic. I think!!!
     
  5. BlueZ

    BlueZ Well-Known Member

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    And this is what I call the start of Phase two. Normal travel no longer possible but many folks now realizing the predicament so they leave the population centers.
     
  6. capt.

    capt. Well-Known Member

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    OK start of phase 2. People will prey on each other as they flee the city, nice honest helpful folk will be the first hit as the gang mentality causes violence. Gangs will attempt to take what they can as they move out of an area and recruit other like minded nut jobs , on the way out. I still think they will be on foot until they reach a good distance out and away from the city and find motor transport. Only exception may be motorcycles/bikes/scooters etc.
    What they can carry will be a limit imposed by this. In this area as they reach the sticks people will form up in groups to act as police along with our local PD guys. At least I hope so. It will not be a good day. Just hope no major event happens to set it off.
     
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  7. ArizonaHeat

    ArizonaHeat Active Member

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    Sounds like a scene right out of "The Walking Dead"!
     
  8. ArizonaHeat

    ArizonaHeat Active Member

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    I think the worst case scenario will be an indefinite loss of the power grid. When that happens there will be no food deliveries, no fuel deliveries and basically no infrastructure. So the question becomes, will it be any better by trying to travel to a rural area? Or are you better off to shelter-in-place and defend your location? (This assumes you have stored food, water and ammunition.)
     
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  9. BlueZ

    BlueZ Well-Known Member

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    If are you urban or suburban no matter how much food/water you have stored eventually you will run out.
    Also Sewers will start backing up and make the place unlivable.
    So if the grid is down HARD hunkering down may just postponing the inevitable. Except the later you leave the less survivable the trek becomes.... UNLESS you are enough resources ot last 1 yr.
    By then everyone unprepared has died off and the kinetic phase, phase 2 is likely over so the main threat may be gone ( dead).
    BUT by now the culture has become much rougher because everyone is basically walking dead survivalist character.. and if u dont have tribe or safe location to fall into ( or just meet the wrong crew on the way) you may still see trouble on your trek.
     
  10. capt.

    capt. Well-Known Member

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    For those of us that can afford it or can get along and band together to get a place where each family unit can put up shelter / toilet etc. and actually live there once twice a year. Upgrade as can afford. Any low pop area with small .gov would work. You can have an out house or septic ,well or spring creek or pond. Just make every thing varmint proof. Also low maintenance metal roof/spray foam etc. All low key. My area has a gated 5 thousand acres mostly rich folks except 3 or 4 of us retired folks. So far after 12 years no issues. We don't talk about preps and such. Our only issue is the state that hates this kind of set up. We are not anti anything and cause no problems but it seems that 1 or 2 times a year a state DNR or police walk in , They can't locate it all, but it is on google earth , this I see as the future problem, threat (Google Earth, Defense mapping etc) Perhaps a solar flare would be the best/bad thing. But you still have to get there!!!.
     
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  11. BlueZ

    BlueZ Well-Known Member

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    Good thinking!
     
  12. BillM

    BillM BillM

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    We will defiantly shelter in place. I live here and no one can drive me out. I will live or die right here.
     
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  13. capt.

    capt. Well-Known Member

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    Billm I agree, Im at an age where getting to my other place may not be possible. My kids know how to get there and are getting to a place in life where they can build a small cabin on the property , so at least some one will use it. They know where all the stuff is and keep mouths shut . I'm not rich as the .gov jobs don't pay very hi retirement but I have put away a little stuff since my return from RVN and saw how screwed up that was , then Clintons, onward etc. But what I think is most important is the mind set, and not being caught with your britches down, mentally, Like I've told people for years , think plan react, don't sit on your brains. I used to handle a lot of family violence. So the dept used to buy pepper spray that I handed out to any women who thought she had enough, smacking around. I also told each one to buy a child's bat and to never hit anyone in the head but gave them a baton chart and said swing away, Most spouses stopped the abuse or moved away because the wife kicked there A$$. I still have women come up to me and thank me after 15 years, and tell me it changed their lives. I also told them to call me and my dept if this happened not the state. The mind can get you killed, or lack of one. Don't wait for .gov it will take awhile and you may not like it.
     
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  14. FarmerPat

    FarmerPat New Member

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    FYI- you can buy Novolin N and Novolin R insulin OVER THE COUNTER at Walmart pharmacies. No limit and no prescription needed. I’m on NovolinN and have been uninsured since ObamaCRAP was passed, and I get my insulin there. It’s a life saver for both myself and my insulin-dependent chocolate Lab.
     
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  15. BillS

    BillS Well-Known Member

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    I thought once that a pandemic could cause a total economic collapse. I thought people might be afraid to go to work. Grocery stores could close. I just didn't expect most of the economy to shut down because of one.

    I think it will get ugly this summer if the country isn't back to normal. I see stories on the internet that it really isn't that bad in New York. I also wonder if Trump knows how bad it will get but is trying to give people hope. I think the story that the virus will peak in a week or two is nonsense. I've been watching the virus and death counts everyday. The confirmed cases were going up 10% a day. Now it's about 5%. That means it doubles about every 4 weeks instead of every 2 weeks.

    I still think the virus is a bio weapon. To me it's no coincidence that Wuhan has a bio weapons lab. It's also possible that it was produced in the US and released in China.
     
  16. capt.

    capt. Well-Known Member

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    I agree that China is making a practice run.