Economy In Full Recovery?

Discussion in 'Money, Investing & Precious Metals' started by UncleJoe, May 25, 2010.

  1. UncleJoe

    UncleJoe Well-Known Member

    25 Questions To Ask Anyone Who Is Delusional Enough To Believe That This Economic Recovery Is Real

    If you listen to the mainstream media long enough, you just might be tempted to believe that the United States has emerged from the recession and is now in the middle of a full-fledged economic recovery. Any "recovery" that the U.S. economy is experiencing is illusory and will be quite temporary. The entire financial system of the United States is falling apart, and the powers that be can try to patch it up and prop it up for a while, but in the end this thing is going to come crashing down. ...

    ...But as obvious as that may seem to most of us, there are still quite a few people out there that are absolutely convinced that the U.S. economy will fully recover and will soon be stronger than ever.

    So the following are 25 questions to ask anyone who is delusional enough to believe that this economic recovery is real....

    #1) In what universe is an economy with 39.68 million Americans on food stamps considered to be a healthy, recovering economy? In fact, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that enrollment in the food stamp program will exceed 43 million Americans in 2011. Is a rapidly increasing number of Americans on food stamps a good sign or a bad sign for the economy?

    #2) According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings were reported on 367,056 properties in the month of March. This was an increase of almost 19 percent from February, and it was the highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began issuing its report back in January 2005. So can you please explain again how the U.S. real estate market is getting better?

    #3) The Mortgage Bankers Association just announced that more than 10 percent of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage had missed at least one payment in the January-March period. That was a record high and up from 9.1 percent a year ago. Do you think that is an indication that the U.S. housing market is recovering?

    #4) How can the U.S. real estate market be considered healthy when, for the first time in modern history, banks own a greater share of residential housing net worth in the United States than all individual Americans put together?

    #5) With the U.S. Congress planning to quadruple oil taxes, what do you think that is going to do to the price of gasoline in the United States and how do you think that will affect the U.S. economy?

    #6) Do you think that it is a good sign that Arnold Schwarzenegger, the governor of the state of California, says that "terrible cuts" are urgently needed in order to avoid a complete financial disaster in his state?

    #7) But it just isn't California that is in trouble. Dozens of U.S. states are in such bad financial shape that they are getting ready for their biggest budget cuts in decades. What do you think all of those budget cuts will do to the economy?

    #8) In March, the U.S. trade deficit widened to its highest level since December 2008. Month after month after month we buy much more from the rest of the world than they buy from us. Wealth is draining out of the United States at an unprecedented rate. So is the fact that the gigantic U.S. trade deficit is actually getting bigger a good sign or a bad sign for the U.S. economy?

    #9) Considering the fact that the U.S. government is projected to have a 1.6 trillion dollar deficit in 2010, and considering the fact that if you went out and spent one dollar every single second it would take you more than 31,000 years to spend a trillion dollars, how can anyone in their right mind claim that the U.S. economy is getting healthier when we are getting into so much debt?

    #10) The U.S. Treasury Department recently announced that the U.S. government suffered a wider-than-expected budget deficit of 82.69 billion dollars in April. So is the fact that the red ink of the U.S. government is actually worse than projected a good sign or a bad sign?

    #11) According to one new report, the U.S. national debt will reach 100 percent of GDP by the year 2015. So is that a sign of economic recovery or of economic disaster?

    #12) Monstrous amounts of oil continue to gush freely into the Gulf of Mexico, and analysts are already projecting that the seafood and tourism industries along the Gulf coast will be devastated for decades by this unprecedented environmental disaster. In light of those facts, how in the world can anyone project that the U.S. economy will soon be stronger than ever?

    #13) The FDIC's list of problem banks recently hit a 17-year high. Do you think that an increasing number of small banks failing is a good sign or a bad sign for the U.S. economy?

    #14) The FDIC is backing 8,000 banks that have a total of $13 trillion in assets with a deposit insurance fund that is basically flat broke. So what do you think will happen if a significant number of small banks do start failing?

    #15) Existing home sales in the United States jumped 7.6 percent in April. That is the good news. The bad news is that this increase only happened because the deadline to take advantage of the temporary home buyer tax credit (government bribe) was looming. So now that there is no more tax credit for home buyers, what will that do to home sales?

    #16) Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently told the U.S. government that they are going to need even more bailout money. So what does it say about the U.S. economy when the two "pillars" of the U.S. mortgage industry are government-backed financial black holes that the U.S. government has to relentlessly pour money into?

    #17) 43 percent of Americans have less than $10,000 saved for retirement. Tens of millions of Americans find themselves just one lawsuit, one really bad traffic accident or one very serious illness away from financial ruin. With so many Americans living on the edge, how can you say that the economy is healthy?

    #18) The mayor of Detroit says that the real unemployment rate in his city is somewhere around 50 percent. So can the U.S. really be experiencing an economic recovery when so many are still unemployed in one of America's biggest cities?

    #19) Gallup's measure of underemployment hit 20.0% on March 15th. That was up from 19.7% two weeks earlier and 19.5% at the start of the year. Do you think that is a good trend or a bad trend?

    #20) One new poll shows that 76 percent of Americans believe that the U.S. economy is still in a recession. So are the vast majority of Americans just stupid or could we still actually be in a recession?

    #21) The bottom 40 percent of those living in the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s wealth. So is Barack Obama's mantra that "what is good for Wall Street is good for Main Street" actually true?

    #22) Richard Russell, the famous author of the Dow Theory Letters, says that Americans should sell anything they can sell in order to get liquid because of the economic trouble that is coming. Do you think that Richard Russell is delusional or could he possibly have a point?

    #23) Defaults on apartment building mortgages held by U.S. banks climbed to a record 4.6 percent in the first quarter of 2010. In fact, that was almost twice the level of a year earlier. Does that look like a good trend to you?

    #24) In March, the price of fresh and dried vegetables in the United States soared 49.3% - the most in 16 years. Is it a sign of a healthy economy when food prices are increasing so dramatically?

    #25) 1.41 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009 - a 32 percent increase over 2008. Not only that, more Americans filed for bankruptcy in March 2010 than during any month since U.S. bankruptcy law was tightened in October 2005. So shouldn't we at least wait until the number of Americans filing for bankruptcy is not setting new all-time records before we even dare whisper the words "economic recovery"?

    Go to the original article to get links to confirm all the above numbers and facts.
    25 Questions To Ask Anyone Who Is Delusional Enough To Believe That This Economic Recovery Is Real
  2. mosquitomountainman

    mosquitomountainman I invented the internet. :rofl:

    Add in the "natural disasters" like volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tornados, flooding, etc. and the world political and economic situation and it looks even worse.

    I've told our kids that in all the years I've been preparing these current times are the most unsettled I've ever seen.

  3. Expeditioner

    Expeditioner Well-Known Member

    Very interesting post. I have been liquidating unused assets for quite sometime because "I have a bad feeling about this Lucy".
  4. Littlebit

    Littlebit Well-Known Member

    Unclejoe-Your the man! :2thumb: Great Post. I need to show this to ( You Know) that part of the family who thinks My sister and I have lost our minds :nuts: Kids now days have know idear whats going on passed there own cell phones, Ipads, Iphones and what ever elses that takes batteries.
    Thanks :melikey:
  5. lotsoflead

    lotsoflead Well-Known Member

    just the first sentence stopped me in my tracks, the Americans on food stamps is now over 49 million.
  6. horseman09

    horseman09 Well-Known Member

    IMHO we are heading for The Perfect Storm -- much of it manmade, but then throw in a natural disaster or two, coupled with a disgraceful, devious, greedy, self-serving, Marxist administration, and we will have the crisis needed for them to justify draconian laws (in the name of protecting the common good) the likes of which we have never seen.

    A number of times in our nation's history, sedition laws were imposed that resulted in jail time just for verbally disagreeing with the fed. During WW1, criticizing our involvement could get you 2 years. In the 20s, the rapidly climbing J. Edgar Hoover orchestrated "radical raids" that jailed thousands. Most were subsequently released or deported in short order, but it all stemmed from public fear, ambitious feds, and the trashing of the Constitution.

    Can it happen again?
  7. JeepHammer

    JeepHammer Well-Known Member

    Actually, the economy is doing what it always does after a pretty hard recession,

    Jobs loss is trickling down,
    At slightly under 10% right now and holding pretty much steady.

    There are a lot of small businesses opening up, and people are finding jobs there.
    Like it always happens, small business will fuel the recovery,
    And like it always happens those small business owners will either sell out to larger companies, or their owners will be recruited to work for larger companies and close the small businesses as the big corporate employers get bloated,
    Then in about 12 to 20 years we go through a correction again,
    And the big business cuts back on bloat, and we have unemployment around 10-20% again...

    I saw it in '87 when Ronnie Ray-Guns nearly bankrupted the country, and again now from GWB trying to bankrupt the country.

    I swore in the first round I would NEVER allow myself to be marginalized and out of the work force!
    Welding and machine schools for me! Continued my education in electronics...

    Since I didn't sell off or merge my small business,
    And since people are needing to make their older farm equipment/vehicles last longer,
    My machining and welding services have increased.

    I'm seeing more 'Custom' electronics jobs, older alternators & starters, people wanting vehicles to be wired for more modern electronics so they can mount the latest versions of planting, fertilizer, pesticide/herbicide application computers, ect.

    It just baffles me they would trade in a 2 year old tractor simply because the wiring harness wasn't compatible with this years version of computer...
    I guess this is teaching them it's not all about 'Bright & Shiny', but I'm getting old enough to realize every generation has to lean that for themselves...

    It's surprising to me the people my age that didn't see this coming again,
    But I guess it's true, stupid people are doomed to repeat their mistakes!
    And when the 'Young' won't seek guidance from the 'Old', and rely on books, they aren't going to see the cycles coming either no matter how much education they have...

    Anyway, when you grow your own food, make your own power, have your own local trade, You are pretty much Recession Proof,
    But most people are WAY too lazy to get out of bed and work every day, all day long!
    And they are WAY too lazy to learn about electronics, gardening, animal husbandry, financing, tax liability, and all the other things it takes to run a 'Farm' without falling on your face.

    People think 'Dirt Farmers' are stupid because they talk slow and don't jump every time the stock market jumps up or down 100 points...
    Maybe it's because they are thinking the answer over and considering it from several different view points before they pop off with some canned answer from a TV show!

    YES, the economy is recovering,
    It will be a long, slow process since big business REALLY picked the bones of the American Tax Payer!
    But one thing that AMERICANS DO REALLY WELL is pick themselves up by the boot straps and make good no matter what the sh!t sandwich they were handed.

    It's not due to people second guessing the current administration's actions.
    It's from actual, hard working people realizing that there aren't any '9 to 4' jobs hanging on trees,
    They are digging in, building something from scratch,
    Finding a niche in the economy and making it pay for them.

    They are paying off debt, saving money, staring businesses, and working their butts off instead of looking for corporate jobs so they can do as LITTLE as possible...

    Pick yourself up, Dust yourself off, Find something you can do and build a proper small business around that.
    DO NOT sell 'Made In China' crap to idiots that don't know any better like Wal-Mart does.
    DO NOT think you can get away with 9-4 hours and expect your position to be secure.

    ACTUALLY TAKE CHARGE of your surroundings, make those payments into your retirement accounts,
    Pay those bills in 15 days,
    Assess what you actually NEED, opposed to what you 'Want'.
    Put in a FULL days work and you WILL make it!
  8. horseman09

    horseman09 Well-Known Member

    jeephammer quote: "Actually, the economy is doing what it always does after a pretty hard recession,"

    Jeephammer, there is no historical precedent for the national environment which America and the world is in currently.

    Socially and culturally, America has become more divided, government-dependent, weak, ignorant, and apathetic than ever in our history. Unprecedented.

    Economically, the majority of America's government entities are on the verge of profound bankruptcy. Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, Fanny Mae, Freddy Mac, the Post Office would all be in bankruptcy if they were private entites. An unresolved housing bust, with corporate and personal credit bubbles on the verge of bursting will dramatically compound the crisis. Unprecedented.

    Globally, most of the Western govenments are even worse off economically that America. That gives a whole new meaning, in this global economy, to "The Dominoe Affect". Unprecedented.

    Industrially, our manufacturing capacity (our saving grace in WW2) is disgracefully anemic and getting worse. Unprecedented.

    The list goes on and on.

    The only historical precedent I can find to our current situation is Rome; and we have a fiddler in the White House.
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2010
  9. gypsysue

    gypsysue The wanderer

    This is true: "Socially and culturally, America has become more divided, government-dependent, weak, ignorant, and apathetic than ever in our history. Unprecedented."(horseman09),

    But this is also true: "ACTUALLY TAKE CHARGE of your surroundings, make those payments into your retirement accounts,
    Pay those bills in 15 days,
    Assess what you actually NEED, opposed to what you 'Want'.
    Put in a FULL days work and you WILL make it!" (JeepHammer)

    God bless America...
  10. mosquitomountainman

    mosquitomountainman I invented the internet. :rofl:

    JH - I'd like to share your optimism but I don't. I believe we will "recover" eventually but it will be a long hard pull. One of the major differences today is our lack of a manufacturing base. You speak of repairing farm equipment and electronics. Where are your parts made? When I as a mechanic even our "GM original equipment" parts were mostly made in Mexico. When I worked at the Ford dealership most parts were made in Canada. The steel mills are closed. Coal mining is under attack as is oil drilling. Logging is nearly gone. The government pays our farmers to not plant crops.

    We have a service oriented economy. That means that money just changes hands. It's like a giant pyramid scheme that works great until you run out of people to contribute. You are make your living in the service sector. You don't produce anything out of raw materials that increase in value. I'm not against what you do (I made my living the same way for a long time.) It's just that service sector jobs don't increase the amount of money going into a system.

    Agriculture, mining, oil production, and manufacturing take raw materials and in each step they produce goods that increase in value. The farmer takes seeds, plants them and produces more seeds in the form of crops. He starts with little and creates more. The same with mining, logging, etc. A factory takes raw materials and produces a product that has increased in value. These things bring in money rather than just shuffle it around from hand to hand.

    The countries that have growing economies have large manufacturing bases.

    Our economy has been driven for many years by borrowed "wealth." The government is trying to bring prosperity by borrowing money. Borrowing to build a factory is one thing. There you actually have a chance to produce wealth. Borrowing to fund wars and social programs without increasing real productive jobs as a dead-end street. Americans as individuals tried to borrow their way to prosperity. It didn't work. The same thing will happen to the government. If things are going to turn around we need to restore our manufacturing and agricultural base.

    The unemployment figures are cooked. They don't count the people who are classed as "no longer looking for work" (basically people whose unemployment benefits have run out). Real unemplyment is closer to 18 percent. Inflation figures are also cooked and are often qualified with statements such as "not counting fuel and food prices" inflation has remained low ... So what happens when real figures are given that do count fuel and food increases?

    We have a government that is concerning itself with fringe issues instead of the things that need to happen. Despite my dislike for Clinton he did repeat the mantra "It's the economy, stupid!" during his campaign for the presidency. He kept his focus on what was important to the American people. He didn't foist a psuedo national health care for everyone bill that simply required everyone to purchase health insurance nor did he get mired down in social issues such as homosexuality and immigration reform.

    Not even enough jobs are being created to employ the new people entering the work force let alone for those who've been working for years but have lost their jobs.

    I don't know what the future holds regarding the economy and social unrest. I'm no youngster (I'll be 56 in a few days) nor do I frighten easily but I do see some very bad signs on the horizon. I'm quite nervous about a future North Korea, Iran and China alliance getting us nto another wrld war. Middle Eastern terrorists are also growing far more bold and effective worldwide. We are stretched to the limits alrady militarily with all these brush wars past administrations have gotten us involved in.

    I do agree with you on buying merchandise made anywhere except America. Lets just keep buying the Chineese stuff and export a few more jobs over there and contribute to the vast amounts of money they funnel into their military. Then when the time comes that they're pointing the guns at us (U.S.) we'll rest easy knowing we financed the war machines they're using against us.
  11. lotsoflead

    lotsoflead Well-Known Member

    The real US unemployment rate is 16 percent if persons who have dropped out of the labor pool and those working less than they would like are counted,If one considers the people who would like a job but have stopped looking -- so-called discouraged workers -- and those who are working fewer hours than they want, the unemployment rate would move from the official 9.4 percent to 16 percent, there are some that say the unemployment rate is up around 22%
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2010
  12. HarleyRider

    HarleyRider Comic Relief Member

    Economy in full recovery? When pigs fly!! :rolleyes:
  13. Expeditioner

    Expeditioner Well-Known Member

    Anybody who truly believes the numbers that are being bantied about needs to keep on drinking the kool-aid. There are some serious systemic problems that have not been addressed. Yes a few small businesses are flourishing....mine is thank goodness....but in my area I see more failures than successes.

    God save us all!
  14. carlnet


    I work in the IT consulting sector and hire about 40 to 50 people a month if you include contractors. In the last 6 months it has gotten harder to find available IT talent and so I asked my sourcing team to come up with some numbers to explain the issue. For the total labor pool in general the unemployment rate seems to be 12% to 17% depending on who you ask. On the other hand for IT people with college educations the unemployment rate is 3% (this is the pool I hire from). This explains quite a lot because 6 months ago I could have hired as many IT people as I wanted at any ridiculously low rate. Whereas today I have a hard time hiring people at very good rates.

    I do not attribute the change to an improvement in the economy but instead pent up demand. Companies tried as long as they could to put off doing major IT work/upgrades after they downsized at the start of the recession. But, now they risk hurting their businesses if they do not improve/upgrade their IT. So the companies are using as many contractors and consultants as they can so they do not have to hire and take the risk of having to fire the new people.

    When we see companies start to hire for the IT positions they fired people from we will then be in a real recovery.
  15. UncleJoe

    UncleJoe Well-Known Member

    MMM said it best. Without an expansion in the manufacturing base, there is little prospect of a serious recovery and business's are not going to expand with the potential for tax hikes in 2011.
    I have a small business; and yes, it's in the service arena. I took a 60% cut in revenue in 2009. This year has been a little better but I attribute a lot of this to some severe storms we had in May. Folks tend to get concerned when they see their neighbors trees falling down so they think "prevention".
    I deal with the general public every day. When I talk to people, either new or repeat customers, and the conversation turns to the economy, everyone feels that there is more pain to come. There is concern over job security and retirement savings that is coming up far shorter than what they expected it would be.
    Government is spending billions, for pet projects and entitlement programs, that they don't have by borrowing from countries that produce something the world needs. What it doesn't borrow, it prints in the form of quantitative easing. Nice harmless sounding term to sell to the masses. :rolleyes: Inflation will be the next step because that will ease the governments debt burden, which IMHO will not be able to be paid off; ever.
    This "recovery" is just the next, and final bubble in a series of bubbles that have grown and burst over the last 40 years.
  16. nj_m715


    Jeep, I feel like we may be two peas from the same pod with some of the projects we've both built, but I just plain disagree. I'm 35 so I may not be a experienced or wise as some other here, but I just don't see it getting better. My gut tells me that we are riding on a tarp bubble. car sales were up with cash for clunkers, home sales were up with the rebates, but those things are turning.
    Our local and state govenrments are upside down, cut backs and latoffs have cops,fireman and teachers looking for jobs. Those guy should have been set for life with those positions. Even with the cut back backs the gov. is still short, so they will be coming to us with their hand out, raising taxes. You can't get blood from a stone.
    Just look around at your friends and family. Many are working longer hrs for the same or less money, or can't find enough hrs to work.
    Look at the job numbers and like they said the foodstamp numbers.

    Again I'm relatively young, I haven't lived through this before, but I just don't have a good feeling right now. I think we'll see the double dip before see the recovery.

    I save what I can for a rainy day and the rest I reinvest in myself not a 401k. I drive an '85 Mercedes on waste oil. I could go get a shiny new truck, but I'd rather put my money into other things. 2 yrs ago I put in a tarm dual fuel wood/oil boiler and a high effecientcy gas boiler right next to it. I can stay warm with heating oil, waste oil, wood or gas. I'm thinking real hard about putting up a large solar panel system. I just need to get up the stones to shell out the money. Both of those heaters were big ticket items, but I'll have them for the rest of my life and they'll make/save money for me for the rest of my life. I figure I'll break even in about 8 yrs and that's not counting rising fuel costs. Not to mention that It makes me that much more self sufficient.
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2010
  17. lotsoflead

    lotsoflead Well-Known Member

    you could be half right, I think we'll go double dip and deep depression in many parts of the country. The government is not telling the truth about unemployment firgure or anything else. Obama can't keep borrowing money to keep social programs going,99 weeks unemployment, a raise for people of welfare, money for teachers and cops.It's the liberals way of buying votes.Just wait til companies get their heath bill, many more will move out of the country as they're going to go up to pay for Obama care.there'll be nothing left here but government,state, county workers(people taking out of the system) food service people, and some people working for cash doing odd jobs for the rich.

    Fed, Citing Slowdown, to Buy U.S. Debt

    WASHINGTON — Acknowledging that the recovery has slowed, the Federal Reserve on Tuesday announced that it would use the proceeds from its huge mortgage-bond portfolio to buy long-term Treasury securities.

    By buying government debt, the Fed is taking an unmistakable step to maintain the large amount of money that it pumped into the economy, starting in 2007, to prop up the financial and housing markets..

    Fed, Citing Slowdown, to Buy U.S. Debt - Yahoo! Finance

    Obama signs emergency bill to halt teacher layoffs

    It is their union that is helping put us in this fix.
    WASHINGTON -- Summoned back from summer break, the House on Tuesday pushed through an emergency $26 billion jobs bill that Democrats said would save 300,000 teachers, police and others from election-year layoffs. President Barack Obama immediately signed it into law.
    Obama signs emergency bill to halt teacher layoffs -

    Beware the light at the end of the tunnel
    Commentary: It's a debt train about to collide with federal obligations

    GREENWICH, Conn. (MarketWatch) -- The federal deficit is no longer an abstract long-term problem; it's a financially critical freight train hurtling down the track at alarming speed.

    Here's a dramatic way to look at it: Nominal GDP is only $100 billion higher than it was back in the third quarter of 2008. That means it has been growing at only $4 billion per month, while new federal debt has been accumulating at around $100 billion per month

    Just ask your self how long you could survive if you borrowed every month to pay bills and live, eventually everyone is going to cut your credit, them how could you pay for your life style?can you say crash? if you live in one of the Blue states that is up side down, you better buy more rice and beans for the yrs ahead. everyone had dreams of their children living better than they did, i think it'll be at least three generations before they'll see that again.

    "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples' money." Margaret Thatcher
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2010
  18. fobhomestead

    fobhomestead Well-Known Member

    THIS IS EXCELLENT. :congrat: I am very happy to see that there really are people paying attention and actually researching things themselves (not just turning on one news or the other. Granted, I AM a huge GB fan, but only because I am happy to see that he is at least trying to understand).
    The reality behind my desire to homestead is because I know that our economy and way of life is in a free fall. I WORKED for Social Services in the WELFARE Department and I can honestly say that there are good people who are on hard times that need those programs. I stayed there as long as I could for them. I couldn't keep working there though because (I have severe PTSD and in their mind it meant I was going to "go postal", which is :rant:and completely propagated by DRs and their BS, and) I could no longer go against my morals and patriotic duty to stand as an American for our way. The goverment is actually WORKING on its service workers to get them to treat WELFARE like a benefit and those who come thru the door are supposed to be "customers". (hmmm... maybe emailing the Gov and her cronies and telling them their solution is crap had something to do with them thinking I am postal? :scratch) Anyway... it is what it is, and we had better prepare NOW before the masses wake up to the danger and panic sets in (aka: inflation)
  19. kyfarmer

    kyfarmer Well-Known Member

    Just wanted to add i have some wonderful land down south for sale ( maybe a little soggy ). Think positive there is so much ya can do with swampland. With the economy poppin so good. I should be able to sale it fast. Do you think they believe the tripe they are trying to feed us. I for one am just sick of the garbage coming outa DC on an hourly not daily basis. :(
  20. fobhomestead

    fobhomestead Well-Known Member

    :rolleyes: Is that sarcasm I sense? My sarcie senses are going off... I also have ocean front land in AZ for sale... It's on the internet and our government is telling me its a great deal... it must be true!! :D