Coming Winter Intensity?

Discussion in 'General Preparedness Discussion' started by JeepHammer, Dec 19, 2008.

  1. JeepHammer

    JeepHammer Well-Known Member

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    I know the 'End Of The World' types want some big catastrophes that causes cannibalisms, ect...

    BUT!

    I'm noticing conditions are about the same this year as the were back in '77 & '78 when we had blizzards that kicked butt!

    Snow in south Texas and New Orleans, 3" of snow in Las Vegas, early arctic air blasts in the mid west...

    I remember all these from the blizzards in '77 & '78, so I'm just wondering if the weather patterns are going to line up again to case problems?!!!

    For those of you that don't remember the winters of '76/'77 and '77/'78, you might want to 'google' it!
    They were REAL fun! Kept me out of school for about 6 weeks here!
     
  2. endurance

    endurance Well-Known Member

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    That's funny because 76-77 was one of the driest winters on record in Colorado and it was followed by some of the snowiest in 79-80, 82-83, 83-84. Colorado actually backed out of Winter Olympic contention after the 76-77 winter because they didn't think we'd have enough snow to support the ski events. I definitely remember 82 quite vividly. That year the storms just kept on coming. Obviously where the serious winters hit varies some around the country. This winter started very slowly here and is now getting and staying cold, but we really aren't getting all that much precip in the city (although the ski areas 60-100 miles west are doing alright). A friend of mine in Coeur d'Alene, ID said they just got blasted last Wednesday-Thursday with 28" in 24 hours. That's some serious snow for those parts (I don't think folks in Buffalo would even notice).
     

  3. Magus

    Magus Scavenger deluxe

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    Global warming is BS.its nothing but a cycle and it appears to be over.
     
  4. endurance

    endurance Well-Known Member

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    We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. If you look at the temperatures 10,000 years ago, with glaciers extending from Hudson Bay to Indianapolis, I'd say it's a wee-bit warmer than it was back then. Also, if you look at the retreat of glaciers in the southern 48, Europe, and the Himalayas, it's definitely continuing to warm.

    Now if you want to debate cause, that's another matter with little scientific evidence either way.
     
  5. TechAdmin

    TechAdmin Administrator Staff Member

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  6. AgentFlounder

    AgentFlounder fan of analysis

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    I dare not weigh in on on global warming too much -- except to say I always try to adhere to a scientific approach about things, meaning I try not to get too entrenched in any idea, theory, or way of thinking. I hope I can stay that way for many more years as I have seen in myself and others what happens when one gets calcified in their thinking and theories. I hold to my core beliefs and values, but am thankful when my ideas and theories are challenged. I try to learn enough and be humble enough to realize that scientists know a lot more about their chosen topics than I do.

    But anyway... seems like the big blizzards here follow El Nino years (from my miniscule 15 years of sampling). I don't believe this past year was one (anyone know?). We've had some nice cold and light snow which was enjoyable. I'm not holding my breath on a big snow this year but that is pure conjecture. Altho the Jeep is (mostly) ready to give out rides. :D
     
  7. JeepHammer

    JeepHammer Well-Known Member

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    Not true, according to every reputable scientist and university on the planet...
    But you are allowed to believe anything you want to.

    19 of the last 20 years have been the hottest on record, with winter coming later, and ending sooner.

    Cold snaps and ice storms are inevitable, and have nothing to do with the global warming and melting of the ice sheets...
    BUT,
    The odd weather patterns, like serious amounts of snow in Texas, New Orleans, Las Vegas, are all predicted and fit into the weather models of global warming.
    ---------------------------------

    -----------------------------------------

    Last year was El Niño instead of La Niña, so snows and ice storms were a given, so were the heavy rains out in the west.

    Your observations are pretty much correct with predictions from the weather service and what actually happens...
    AND,
    It's only been about 15 years since we have had comprehensive wave action, ocean temp, and satellites that could track the El Niño/La Niña connections, so you are pretty well adjusted for the information we have right now...
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2008
  8. GPER

    GPER Active Member

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    I do remember the blizzard, the day before I broke a rear axle on my 67 CJ-5. I got it towed to the shop got home and the next morning was the blizzard.

    I sat at home for a week while mom and dad were in Florida:rolleyes: Finally got the Jeep fixed and started plowing what snow was left.
     
  9. NaeKid

    NaeKid YourAdministrator, eh?

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    The way that "Global Warming" is being preached from the hallowed halls of the scientific community - I don't believe. The way that "Global Cooling" (aka IceAge) is being preached from the other side of the hallowed halls of the scientific community - I also don't believe. I can be proved wrong.

    I believe that we are in a normal cycle and that instead of trying to change the planet (we cannot), we have to change ourselves.
    We need to change ourselves to match what Gaia wants - not the other way around.
     
  10. JeepHammer

    JeepHammer Well-Known Member

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    I went out and tuned up the FSJ (Full Size Jeep for you guys that don't own Jeeps)
    And made sure everything I was going to need was there...

    Tools, chemicals, heater, chainsaws, bar oil, extra sharp chains, ect.
    Stuff like an inverter and battery charger, made sure the jumper cables were up to snuff and ready to go...

    I though about putting the chains on now instead of waiting for bad weather, then this little 1/8" of ice came along...
    Not enough for chains, but real slick on regular rubber!

    Stocked up on those chemical heat packs! Found a place in town that was selling them for $1 a pack of 3, that's about a buck cheaper than 'China-Mart' so I bought a couple of full boxes since they don't go bad...

    They say this is supposed to be a serious winter,
    (But they are ALWAYS saying something that dosn't happen!)

    I don't know, can't tell you! I don't know anyone that can read the future,
    And the weather geeks are morons,
    So I'm just going to stock up on Jack Daniels and JeepPorn and see what happens!

    The wood pile is stocked,
    My generator is tuned up and waiting,
    I canned EVERYTHING I could get into a canning jar this year,
    The vehicles are 'Winterized' and ready,
    And I have the outside faucets shut off and drained,
    The storm windows are in,
    I put about 8" of new insulation in the attic this summer,
    So we should be fine no matter what comes!

    Sunday, we had a high of 12 Degrees F. with overnight lows of 0 Degrees and wind chills of -30F....
    This is Wednesday, and it's 50F. and raining!
    (Don't like the weather in Indiana? Wait 10 minutes, it'll change!)

    ANYWAY, MERRY HO-HO TO ALL OF YOU OUT THERE IN CYBER LAND!
     
  11. Magus

    Magus Scavenger deluxe

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    Actually,most of the scientists who disagree with the scam are immediately ostricised.look up the weather records over the last 100 years and you'll see several peaks and valleys such as the one we're in now.that's not to say these cyclical changes don't play hell with the weather,they do!but as far as a human caused,permeanant change comming,its all crap.:)

    Mars is warming too,if the rovers had seen an SUV on mars,it'd make the news.LOL
     
  12. JeepHammer

    JeepHammer Well-Known Member

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    Mars could use some green house gasses!
    Anything to thicken the atmosphere would help!
     
  13. Magus

    Magus Scavenger deluxe

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    I'm thinkin' a couple of tons of blue algae and we could sell resort properties there in a few generations,LOL
     
  14. JeepHammer

    JeepHammer Well-Known Member

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    I think we would have to have MUCH more atmosphere there than there is right now before we consider any kind of life...

    Water boils (or in this case, sublimates) at about 20F because there is so little atmospheric pressure there,
    And there isn't enough 'Green House' gasses to trap solar radiation to warm the surface.

    With no strong magnetic field like earth has, any atmospheric gasses will be blown away by the solar winds, so trying to 'Terra Form' the planet is useless right now...

    We will need to have standing (liquid) water and enough atmosphere to keep the water from boiling away off the surface before we can discuss any algae growth.
     
  15. jebrown

    jebrown jebrown

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    John Coleman who founded the weather channel says that global warming is not happening. He says that we are in a warming trend as part of a 400 year cycle.
    Al Gore will preach to you about global warming and then take your money as he scams you by selling you cabon credits. A journalist checked the records for his residense and found that Gore was using far more energy at his reidence that he should have. After going public with this information the journalist started receiving death threats.
    We all know that the last ice age was ended by a global warming caused by the gas from dinosaur farts.
     
  16. AgentFlounder

    AgentFlounder fan of analysis

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    We need to be looking at scientific research not celebrity endorsements. One guy's opinion is worthless. Since this is a scientific question, the wisest course of action is to consider what science has to say.

    Neither Al Gore's lifestyle, residence, alleged death threats (can you prove this?), nor alleged greed have any bearing on whether global warming or climate change or global dimming are occurring. These things just speak to Al Gore's character as a person.

    John Coleman is a weatherman? Or what? Has he done extensive research into the historical climate record? What are his credentials in speaking to the cycles of weather over the past hundred thousand years or more? What is his empirical evidence? And how many other scientists have duplicated his findings vs. refuted them?

    Have you looked at the scientific research plotting temperature cycles over the last hundred thousand years?
     
  17. The_Blob

    The_Blob performing monkey

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    people are concentrating too much on CO2 (carbon DIoxide) & not enough on worse greenhouse culprits such as CH4 (methane) which is 27x worse than CO2 & WATER vapor (yes, water vapor) which is 3x-4x... yet banning the use of water pretty much is NOT an issue.

    primordial methane is being released at ever increasing amounts in the Northern Hemisphere as ice melts @ prodigious enough rates to be harvested economically & in quantities to be utilized by the entire planet as an energy source... yes, I understand the byproducts are H2O AND CO2... but still LESS destructive than methane.

    also, did anybody know that the Southern Hemisphere has increase in ice GREATER than the reductions in the Northern Hemisphere? interesting how that seems to get under-reported... and sad

    in a perfect world scientists would be rewarded for doing science, as opposed to being hamstringed (hamstrung?) by making their science fit whatever agenda their check-writers have... :( ...on BOTH sides of the fence.

    I believe there is Climate Change.

    I believe there is a warming trend.

    I believe mankind has had a contributing role.

    I do NOT believe that mankind is the major mitigating factor though.

    a simple fact is that an increasing number of scientists are starting to disagree with the current mainstream on GW (it was 10% a couple years ago & it is now 13%-14%... that amount of disparity would be considered a major 'fail' with any other theory/premise, but there is just too damn much MONEY/control involved)

    but consider this; wouldn't it be more prudent to live as if we were the cause of Climate Change & have it not be true, than to live as if nothing were wrong & contribute to ecological disaster? that being said, I am surely NOT a fan of the eco-cult/religion that it has become & NOT a supporter of fascist/social terrorist tactics that attempt 'enforce' particular en vogue viewpoints
     
  18. jebrown

    jebrown jebrown

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    Flounder
    Global warming is just like the Y2K scare. The ones are leading the bandwagon are the one’s making money off of the scare.
    If you had read my post before getting you hackles up John Coleman founded the Weather Channel and is a world renowned Meteorologist He is a certified meteorology scientist not a celebrity. It is said that you don’t know of him as he was on-air for a long time on the Weather Channel. Yes he has done extensive research into weather history. Those who oppose him are the one’s who will suffer profit loss in agreeing with him. How many people do you know of who have done research other than to rove their point other than to separate people from their money? How many of them have done empirical evidence? Where do these people get the information on weather for the last 100,000 years? Pull up ice samples from an iceberg?
    The threats to the journalist were not alleged. He had Police officers on the show backing up his statements of death threats along with Police records. I do not have to prove I am right. It is a matter of public record. Can you prove me wrong. Claiming to or actually doing research but not finding what you want does not prove me wrong or you right.
    I was not speaking of Al Gore’s character but to his lack of it. Do you know where the money goes and exactly how much of it if any goes to where it is supposed to for the Carbon Credits? This program was on the National Geographic Channel. The also exposed other people who were charging people money for Carbon Credits but refuse to reveal where the money was going.
    There are others who have claimed that global warming is a myth. I mistakenly thought that you would know who John Coleman is.
    I guess that you are buying into this nonsense which is why you are so defensive.
    You are not the only one who is a fan of analysis. I too believe in analysis but I also look at who is providing it and what there agenda is. Is it to disseminate information or gain their 15 minutes of fame. Make money on what they say or both.
     
  19. TrailWalker

    TrailWalker Semper Fi

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    Oh yeah I remember well I was on leave from the Marines got a extra six days of leave because of the blizzard. When the local TV station said that we were in for a blizzard I just snickered and said yeah right. Well I remember Interstate 70 completely shut down and local construction companies were using end loaders to clear local highways. Couldn't go more then 1/4 mile in either direction on the road in front of my house on my tractor. Hadn't seen that much snow since the early sixties.
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2008
  20. solaceofwinter

    solaceofwinter Guest

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    i know its warmer but global warming i dunno.
    it used to snow here by the foot now its all just ice/rain.
    kinda sucks for sleighing :)