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Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 190
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The end of the world AS WE KNOW IT
They'll stop talking about the recovery when 'they' don't depend upon it anymore. Denial is a very powerful thing. What would you estimate is the number of jobs that really matter in society? 20% maybe? In the 18th and 19th century, before the discovery of the utility of fossil fuels, it took over 80% of the population to produce the food for a society. When you cut to the quick, if you're not producing food or providing healthcare your job isn't essential if it all comes crashing down. Scary as it is, nearly everyone here is still hooked into a system where what they do now is worthless when the SHTF.
Even an ICU or Oncology nurse in a modern hospital is going to be pretty damn limited in what she can offer if we have an EMP strike that destroys our ability to manufacture, refrigerate and transport drugs, operate motors that run respirators, heart-lung machines, dialisis machines and heck, even the lights. While the training may eventually become useful again, it will be a different world and they will have to work in a different way. Even a modern farmer will have to change absolutely everything if fuel prices reach $10/gallon or more. Small family farms that use work animals may see a return in the long run.
They'll keep talking recovery until we're truly on the bottom, then they'll talk like it's never going to end while the worst will probably be behind us. I don't see this as a flash in the pan. I see this as a long, slow decline lasting decades, with intervals of rallies and intervals of freefall. How you survive will depend on your ability to adapt and find new ways to secure food, energy, and the resources you need in daily life. We could have an enormous bubble in the economy in 2010 or we could continue to decline. If the economy improves, the price of oil will rise, which will put a cap on economic growth, and cause a retraction in the economy. The days of cheap oil are over, which means the party of the 20th century is drawing to a close. Enter the adjustment period for the post-peak oil phase of human history.
At best, we'll manage to retain some degree of public infrastructure, but it's unlikely to be anything like what we have today. Ideally we'll still have the ability to get drugs manufactured in a plant in LA to Denver and we'll be able to ship corn to New York city, but that's not a guaranteed thing. At the very least, we need to retain things like the germ theory, an understanding of basic chemistry, physics, biology, and electricity, but nothing is guaranteed. Look at the peak of Greek and Roman societies versus the dark ages. How much was lost on the basic understanding of architecture, sanitation, and social structure during that time and how long did it take to get back to that point? Centuries.
Throughout human history cities have been limited in scope between 300 and 50,000 people. Beyond 50,000 people, without the intensive infrastructure of the Romans, dealing with food, water, and transportation needs of a city fall apart. What's going to happen when cheap oil is gone? What's going to happen when there are global food shortages because it costs too much to plant, harvest and transport food with the existing infrastructure? How long will our interstate highway system last from the day we stop putting $300+ billion a year into it? If we stopped today, in three to five years you wouldn't be able to get from Denver to Kansas City in under two days because of the cracks, potholes, and degrading bridge joints would prohibit travel at much over 30mph. Do we continue to throw money at that infrastructure, which isn't even keeping up with the backlog of deferred maintainance right now, or do we take another look at the efficiency of rail transportation? Those are choices that nobody wants to make today, but they will have to be made in the next decade or two. Anyone under the age of 40 is certain to see the end of the everyday use of the personal car come to an end in their lifetimes. How will you adapt? Is where you live sustainable without a car? Can you access food, water, fuel (for heat) and medical care within walking distance? How does that remote bugout location sound from that perspective?
Maybe this is a post that belongs in its own thread, but your question, Canadian, inspired me to get to the core of the problem--it's not temporary, it's permanent and demands a complete change in paradigm that most of us are not prepared for. Even those of us who've been prepping for over 20 years.
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